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[1]姜萍马国兰段久红张策单诗洋.我国医疗卫生机构床位资源供需预测研究[J].中国卫生质量管理,2026,33(2):93-98.[doi:10.13912/j.cnki.chqm.2026.33.2.19]
　JIANG Ping,MA Guolan,DUAN Jiuhong.Research on the Forecasting of Supply and Demand for Bed Resources in China’s Healthcare Institutions[J].Chinese Health Quality Management,2026,33(2):93-98.[doi:10.13912/j.cnki.chqm.2026.33.2.19]

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我国医疗卫生机构床位资源供需预测研究

《中国卫生质量管理》[ISSN:1006-7515/CN:CN 61-1283/R] 卷: 33 期数: 2026年2期页码: 93-98 栏目: 问题与探索出版日期: 2026-02-15

Title:: Research on the Forecasting of Supply and Demand for Bed Resources in China’s Healthcare Institutions

作者:: 姜萍马国兰段久红张策单诗洋; 大连医科大学附属第二医院

Author(s):: JIANG Ping; MA Guolan; DUAN Jiuhong; The Second Hospital of Dalian Medical University

关键词:: 医疗卫生机构; 床位供需预测; 床位资源; 时间序列模型; 计划生育政策

Keywords:: Healthcare Institutions; Bed Supply and Demand Forecasting; Bed Resources; Time Series Model; Family Planning Policy

分类号:: R197.1

DOI:: 10.13912/j.cnki.chqm.2026.33.2.19

文献标志码:: A

摘要:: 目的结合人口动态变化，对全国及各省域层面2024-2036年医疗卫生机构床位供给与需求数量进行预测，为我国医疗床位资源合理配置提供参考。方法基于中国统计年鉴数据，采用时间序列模型和卫生服务需求法对全国和各省份医疗卫生机构床位供给和需求数量进行预测。结果从全国层面看，我国医疗卫生机构床位供给数逐年增加，预计从2024年的1 058万张增长至2036年的1 548万张；而床位需求呈下降趋势，校正计划生育政策后，预计床位供需差值从2024年的330万张扩大至2036年的903万张。从省域层面看，我国各省份医疗卫生机构床位供给增速较床位需求增速快，多数省份供给增长率上升，而需求增速放缓。我国中西部地区医疗卫生机构床位供给增速明显快于东部地区，东部沿海经济发达地区省份医疗卫生机构床位需求增速快于中西部地区。结论我国医疗卫生机构总体床位供给大于需求，部分省份床位过剩。医疗床位资源配置须从“增量扩张”转向“存量优化、质量提升和结构转型”，应识别“重点过剩区”和“结构性短缺区”，建立分类管理机制。

Abstract:: ObjectiveCombining demographic dynamics, this study aims to forecast the supply and demand of healthcare institution beds at both national and provincial levels from 2024 to 2036, providing references for the rational allocation of medical bed resources in China.MethodsBased on data from the China Statistical Yearbook, time series models and the health service demand method were employed to predict the supply and demand of healthcare institution beds nationwide and across provinces.ResultsAt the national level, the supply of healthcare institution beds in China is increasing annually, projected to rise from 10.58 million in 2024 to 15.48 million in 2036, while bed demand shows a declining trend after adjusting for the family planning policy. The gap between bed supply and demand is expected to widen from 3.3 million in 2024 to 9.03 million in 2036. At the provincial level, the growth rate of bed supply in China’s provinces outpaces that of bed demand, with most provinces experiencing an increase in supply growth rates and a slowdown in demand growth rates. The growth rate of bed supply in healthcare institutions in central and western China significantly outpaces that in the eastern region, while the demand growth rate for beds in healthcare institutions in economically developed eastern coastal provinces is faster than that in central and western regions.Conclusion The supply of healthcare institution beds in China exceeds demand, with some provinces experiencing bed surpluses. The allocation of medical bed resources must shift from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization, quality improvement, and structural transformation". It is essential to identify "key surplus areas" and "structurally deficient areas",and establish a classified management mechanism.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2026-02-15